ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan is responsible for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, based on the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure considers the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to extreme poverty in the MENAAP regional grouping.
According to the World Bank, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively account for an additional 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four countries constitute roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now accounts for around 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share only surpassed by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one within the World Bank’s classification where poverty levels exceed pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
Pakistan also experienced a rise in poverty at the higher $4.20-a-day threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people living below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this worsening situation to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, soaring inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment periods.
Poverty levels intensify following consecutive shocks
These recent findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total estimated number of people living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
While Pakistan’s economic growth has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators still remain high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and expected 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. It also estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% expected in 2027, following a lower inflation rate in 2025.
The regional classification influences headline figures
The 48% figure reflects the current World Bank regional classification of MENAAP, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Previously, the World Bank classified both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government clarified that this change was purely administrative and statistical, with no impact on the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the updated grouping affected regional poverty figures by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also indicates a weaker regional economy in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, due to conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% for this group in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across multiple economies.