PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might cut its daily vessel capacity to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new head. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the risk as El Niño affects reservoir water levels. The canal relies on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions due to below-average precipitation across the watershed.
Since Sept. 3, the canal has offered nine daily Neopanamax slots alongside 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 available capacity. Starting Sept. 15, the number of Panamax slots will decrease to 23, reducing the overall daily total to 32. These cutbacks are a response to decreased rainfall during Panama’s wet season and diminished water inflows into the canal’s watershed. To manage the water shortage, authorities are employing water conservation strategies and tighter booking regulations, while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
In fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day through June 30, based on official operational data. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 transits, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures were reported before recent rainfall shortages prompted further operational restrictions. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is vital for global trade, facilitating the movement of containers, energy products, bulk commodities, and other cargoes.
Water scarcity prompts tighter transit restrictions
The canal’s locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships across the waterway. Reservoir levels thus directly influence the number of vessels allowed to pass during prolonged dry spells. During the extreme 2023 drought, daily transits decreased to 22 in December as Gatun Lake levels dropped to unusually low levels. Transit capacity later recovered as rainfall improved and conservation efforts helped stabilize water availability for both canal operations and public consumption.
Additionally, vessel draft limits have been adjusted as part of water management measures. On Sept. 4, authorities delayed a planned reduction of the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect after assessing Gatun Lake levels and weather forecasts. These draft restrictions influence how heavily loaded ships can be, which is a key consideration for vessels carrying heavier cargo loads.
Changes in booking procedures accompany capacity constraints
The canal has revised its booking and auction policies in response to reduced available capacity. Auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, such as gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest cargo capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Officials have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as limited capacity can lead to longer wait times. A confirmed reservation remains the only assurance of a scheduled transit date.
No additional orders to reduce transit to 29 ships per day have been issued. The administrator indicated that such a restriction could be implemented in February or March if dry conditions continue. The canal’s monitoring efforts include rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels, which will inform future operational adjustments. The canal is also progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to expand long-term water storage capacity, supporting canal functions and the needs of more than half of Panama’s population.